Offseason Hiatus
Sat, 29 Oct 2011 (by RotoGuru)The 2011 baseball season is over. Many of the site's programs have been "mothballed" for the winter. Check back in 2012 when baseball activities resume.
During the winter, feel free to stop by at RotoGuru.net for continued daily blurbs and sortable stats for various NFL and NBA (maybe) contests.
Hot Dogs & Beer
Tue, 11 Oct 2011 (by RotoGuru)
Sortable Football Stats
Fri, 23 Sep 2011 (by RotoGuru)Yes, I know this is a baseball site. But many of you also enter fantasy football contests. And there are some similar tools set up for football that you may want to know about.
Specifically, RotoGuru.net produces sortable football stats for the salary cap formats at FanDuel, DraftStreet, and Daily Joust. These reports allow you to analyze fantasy point production vs salary. Also provided are point breakdowns by position vs. opponent. For example, through two week, Minnesota has allowed the most FanDuel points to running backs. And click on any player name link (or opposing position link) to see additional game by game details. And from those player pages you can even drill down one level deeper to see the stats underlying each game's point calculation.
Fantasy football is often as much (or more) about matchups and injuries, and less about statistical trends. But to be successful, you need to be aware of the stats and the information they convey. If you play football contests at any of these sites, you'll want to have these tools at your disposal.
Football Pickoff
Thu, 15 Sep 2011 (by RotoGuru)You are all invited to try the NFL picking game at RotoGuru.net, Football Pickoff.
This game, which has been offered each season since 1999, is a variant of the "pick the winner" style with an important scoring twist. Scoring is dynamically based on the actual picks of all pickers. So your success is as much about how you do against the field as it is in your absolute picks for the games themselves.
Here is an example: Suppose that for this week's SD@NE game, 78% of the pickers select the Patriots, and 22% select San Diego. If the Pats do actually win, those who picked New England will score +22 (100 minus 78), while those who took SD will get -22. But if the Chargers win the game, those who selected SD will earn +78, while the Patriot pickers will get torched with -78. So you earn greater rewards for correctly picking against the field. Picking a heavy favorite will either produce a small positive score (if correct), or a big negative score (if the upset occurs.) For a fuller description of the scoring rules, see the rules page at the game site.
Prizes are very modest (although the full season champ does earn a berth in the RotoGuru Hall of Fame), but the concept is simple, the game is free, and you can also set up a separate division to track your results against family and friends - for bragging rights.
The game benefits by having as many entrants as possible (in order to get good diversity and stability in the selection ratios). Although week #1 is already in the books, zero is not a bad score - so entering now still puts your current standing at the median, ahead of roughly half the field. In fact, you'll be ahead of me, as my opening week score was -90.
Come on over! The more, the merrier!
Can you spare a dollar, mister?
Mon, 15 Aug 2011 (by RotoGuru)FanDuel has started offering a "Spare Change Contest" on Mondays. The entry fee is only $1. You can enter multiple times, although this week's contest has an overall limit of 833 entrants. The total prize pool is $750, with a first prize of $75, and 75 total prizes.
If you are already registered at FanDuel, then here's the contest entry page. (or go to the Fanduel home page and scroll down to the $750 MLB Spare Change contest. If you have not registered at FanDuel, then start here.
Fore!
Wed, 10 Aug 2011 (by RotoGuru)I know, this is supposed to be a site devoted to baseball. But if you are a golf fan, and especially if you are interested in fantasy golf, then you may be interested in a new fantasy golf offering from Draft$treet.
You have a bankroll of $100,000 to assemble a team of 6 golfers. Points are awarded based on individual hole scores and also tournament finish:
Albatross: 4.5 pts
Eagle: 2
Birdie: 1
Par: 0.2
Bogey: -0.6
Dbl bogey & worse: -1.6
1st place finish: 8 pts
2nd: 5
3rd: 4
4-10: 3
11-25: 2
26-50: 1
Note that each golfer is scored independently. This is not a best ball format.
I printed out a listing of player prices for the PGA Championship in the RotoGuru Golf Forum. Rory McIlroy is the most expensive at $28,430. Rocco Mediate is the cheapest at $6,338.
Draftstreet offer the full range of their typical contest structures, with varying entry fees (including free) and multi-player formats. Why not tee it up this week?
Looking for a few football managers
Sat, 06 Aug 2011 (by RotoGuru)Since 2004, I've been running a series of football leagues at RotoGuru.net called the RIFC (RotoGuru Invitational Football Challenge.) Each year there is a top league, two AAA leagues, and one or more AA leagues. Teams move up or down from year to year based on performance. There are no prizes and no entry fees - it is all for fun and pride.
This year, we still need a few more teams to fill out a AA league. Here are the general parameters:
1. 14 teams play a 13-week round robin schedule (doubleheaders each week, HTH scoring), followed by a 3-week single elimination playoffs
2. Rosters are fairly deep, and include individual defensive players. (If you've never played in a league with IDPs before, don't let that score you. They just get points for tackles, turnovers, sacks, etc.)
3. The draft is a slow, online draft, held during the two weeks leading up to Labor Day. Generally, you'll need to make about 2 draft picks each day. You can set up draft queues in advance to make your picks for you if your availability is an issue.
4. The league is hosted at myfantasyleague.com, as well as the draft.
If you want to sign up, or have questions, please post in the RIFC AA League Sign-Up thread at the RotoGuru Football Forum.
Playing against the house
Thu, 07 Jul 2011 (by RotoGuru)In Daily Joust’s solo contest format, you are not paired against any other contestant. Like blackjack, you are playing against the house, and need only to reach a total of 50 fantasy points to win. Presumably, Daily Joust has figured that this puts the odds slightly in favor of the house over the long haul. But so far, in 18 contests, I’ve hit the 50 point mark eleven times, giving me an 11-7 record, which is good enough to exceed the site’s rake ($5 entry fee to win $9.)
I’ll be the first to admit that 18 games is not a statistically credible sample. If I flipped a balanced coin 18 times, the probability of getting least 11 heads is roughly 25%. If I flipped an unbalanced coin that produced a head only 44% of the time, I’d still have better than a 10% chance of getting 11 or more heads. And four of my wins were close calls (3 52s, and a 51), while only one loss was that close (49).
Nonetheless, so far, so good. I don’t play every day, avoiding those days with a limited number of games, or with a lot of weather uncertainties, or when I simply don’t have time to think about it for at least 15-30 minutes. Strategically, it seems as though pitching should be a critical factor, even though there is only one pitcher on a 9-player roster. The pitcher can cost as much as half of the salary cap, and the production should be commensurate with the cost. So I need to have some conviction about the pitcher’s outlook.
Curiously, in my limited sample of 18 contests, I’ve generally done better when I’ve allocated significant cost toward my pitcher. In my 11 wins, my pitcher has cost an average of $337 (33.7% of the total roster), and those pitchers have produced an average of 19.2 fantasy points (DJP). In my 7 losses, I’ve spent only $240 on pitching, and those cheaper pitchers have produced an average on only 5 DJP. So going cheap on pitching has not worked out. My pitching points have been much worse that the proportionate cheapness would suggest, and the extra funds I have used for hitting have also not been as productive. In my wins, I’ve actually gotten an average of 38 DJP from hitters, vs. just 31 DJP from my hitters in the losses, in spite of spending about 14% more on hitters in those losses.
What’s this tell me? So far, it tells me that I do better when I pay up for a higher quality pitcher, and forage for value among cheaper hitters. As an extreme case in point, on Tuesday I used Justin Verlander at a cost of $528 - more than half of my entire salary cap. He only generated 20 DJP, suffering a tough 1-0 loss to Dan Haren (who would have been a much better pick at a salary of only $325.) But my hitting - notably Ryan Howard with a monster 22 DJP game - saved the day. My hitters actually produced 41 DJP in total - 22 from Howard, and 19 from everyone else.
Maybe my thinking will shift over the next 18 contests. I really don’t think I’ve been that adept at picking top pitchers. I think the quality pitchers have just cushioned my pitching downside, and I’ve been able to identify enough value in cheap hitters to make up the difference. Whether that’s been skill or luck remains to be seen.
In any event, if you’ve been gun shy about playing at daily contest sites because you fear always getting paired against a “pro”, you might want to give solo contests a try. And so far, Daily Joust is the only site offering this alternative. If you aren’t registered there, be sure to click on the big purple banner above, which should populate “rotoguru” in the appropriate registration referral field. Thanks. (Note - there are no free solo contests offered, but if you want to test out your solo picking capabilities, play a free head-to-head contest. The scoring and salary pricing is the same, and you’ll also get to see who someone else has selected on his or her roster. Just measure your prospective solo contest success using the 50 DJP threshold.)
FanDuel Father's Freeroll
Sat, 18 Jun 2011 (by RotoGuru)FanDuel is offering a freeroll on Father's Day, with a first prize of a $150 gift card to Darden Restaurants (Red Lobster, Olive Garden, etc.), and modest cash prizes for 2nd-9th place. If you haven't played at FanDuel in awhile (or at all), this is a good excuse to (re)acquaint yourself with the site. (Click on the FanDuel link if you haven't yet registered there.)
As of Saturday morning, there are almost 400 entries already, so this will be a big one. As such, you'll want to find some gems in the rough, so to speak. The RotoGuru sortable stats might help in that regard. Be aware that there will be some discrepancies in the salaries in the sortable stats, as they are loaded with salaries for the day's regular contests (and not the freeroll contest). FanDuel salaries typically don't change much from day to day, so the differences should be minor.
Joust thinking about tonight...
Fri, 17 Jun 2011 (by RotoGuru)If you are entering the freeroll tonight at Daily Joust, be sure to keep one eye on the weather. As of noon Friday, four games are forecast for 50% rain, and four others are currently in the 30%-40% range, which could tick upwards. Only six games look to be in the "safe" category. Of course, in a freeroll contest with a large field of entrants, you need to take some risks.
One other consideration is that eight A.L. teams are playing in N.L. parks tonight, so eight regular A.L. hitters are going to find themselves on the bench. You'll want to keep a wary eye on emerging lineups as we approach the evening.
Free Joust
Wed, 15 Jun 2011 (by RotoGuru)Daily Joust has announced a freeroll contest for Friday, June 17. If you haven't yet registered at this new site, use the Daily Joust link to register (the referral field should say "rotoguru" - fill that in if it doesn't). If you are already registered, then go to the "Tournaments" link on the main menu bar and you'll find the MLB tournament. This is a traditional one-day tournament which includes all night games. There are only 14 night games on Friday, so the afternoon Yankees@Cubs game is excluded.
The payout pool is $500, with an unusual twist. The top team will win $200, and the second place team will win $100. After that, prizes will be paid out for places 3-20, with most getting either $10 or $5 - but with the 11th place finisher getting $50. I asked, and found out that's not a typo. Daily Joust is hoping to counter the impression that "only the pros can win the top prizes." So, if you don't expect to win one of the top two prizes, shoot for #11. Or at least root for it, once the games begin.
One final caveat on the prizes. They are all awarded as "Bonus Bucks", which means they cannot be directly cashed out, but can only be used to enter other contests at the site. Of course, any prizes won in those other contests can be cashed out at any time. If you're good enough (or lucky enough) to win a prize, you ought to be good enough to convert it to real money!
Jousting Solo
Wed, 15 Jun 2011 (by RotoGuru)I’ve entered a couple of solo contests this week at Daily Joust, and so far so good. In the solo format, you are not matched up against any other roster(s). You simply need your team to produce 50 fantasy points. I thought I might be in trouble yesterday, because I had Paul Konerko as my first baseman, and the White Sox got rained out. A first base slot is a terrible thing to waste. But Yovani Gallardo got me 24 points (pretty good, considering he failed to get the win when the bullpen blew it.) I also had Curtis Granderson, whose 17 points turned out to be the best from an outfielder for the night. So with 41 points between those two players, the rest of my roster scraped together enough points to get me over the 50 point hurdle.
Justin Verlander would almost have gotten me over the top by himself, with 42 DJP. But his price of $493 would have consumed so much cap space ($1000 max) that I couldn’t bring myself to take him - in spite of the fact that Cleveland has been the worst hitting team in the majors lately.
Anyone for a Daily Joust?
Thu, 09 Jun 2011 (by RotoGuru)Now that the DBD weekly freeroll at Draft$street has completed, it's time to begin promoting another new contest site: Daily Joust.
Probably the newest daily contest site on the web, the Daily Joust site was created and developed by a team of dedicated and passionate fantasy sports professionals. Free and real money contests are offered daily. Their scoring formula is quite similar to FanDuel's formula, although the Joust formula does include a few extra statistical factors. The site layout is intuitive, and includes some useful statistical data right on the contest entry screen, including fantasy point averages (full year and recent). Rosters are similar to FanDuel's as well, although outfielders are not differentiated by left, center, and right.
Perhaps the most unique feature of Daily Joust is the Solo Contest, where you are not competing against another roster, but only against a preset target score, which is currently set at 50 points. This takes some of the randomness out of the contest by eliminating a variable competitor. Of course, that can cut both ways.
DailyBaseballData and RotoGuru have also expanded their tools to incorporate Daily Joust salary, position, and statistical data. Daily Joust positions can now be highlighted in the Batter vs Pitcher report, and the sortable stats and daily point recaps now include Daily Joust as a game option.
To register at Daily Joust, please click on the banner above or on one of the Daily Joust links in this discussion. Currently, Daily Joust is offering a 25% bonus on initial deposits, plus a free Solo contest. Note that there are some participation requirements to fully collect on this offer, which are clearly spelled out on the deposit page.
Freeroll for All
Fri, 03 Jun 2011 (by RotoGuru)Today's FREEROLL contest at Draft$treet is open to all users of DBD, regardless of whether your Draft$treet registration was originally through DBD or not. If you can find the contest link and click on it, you can enter.
According to the folks at Draft$treet, this is the first time they have offered a freeroll using the weekly contest format. And that may seem somewhat anomalous for an offering at DailyBaseballData. But the weekly format was at my request. I thought it was a more distinctive offering than the traditional daily contest, and wanted to give as many as possible aa reason to try it. Admittedly, the gratification of a win isn't quite as instantaneous. But you also have an opportunity to make up for a bad day, or to overcome a supposedly lucky decision by your opponent. Weather becomes less of annoying factor. All in all, I think it is a better test of baseball skill, especially for the new or casual player who might not be playing multiple daily contests every day.
You have until this evening to enter the contest and set your roster for the week. Please give it a shot. You might like it!
For more discussion about this contest and the general strategy for a weekly format, scroll on to the next two blurbs from Thursday and Wednesday.
Weekly Freeroll Contest at Draft$treet
Thu, 02 Jun 2011 (by RotoGuru)The Draft$treet freeroll contest exclusively for users of DailyBaseballData.com has been launched! Click here to enter. The contest uses the standard Draft$treet weekly format, including games from Friday, June 3 through Thursday, June 9. Entries are open until 7:05pm ET Friday. One entry per person. The prize pool is $250, with the top 6 winning a prize ranging from $90 (1st) through $15 (6th). The full payout schedule appears on the contest entry page.
When you click on the contest link in the paragraph above, you'll first have to either register (if you are not yet registered at Draft$treet) or login (if you are). You'll then be forwarded to the private contest page. You can make revisions to your entry at any time up until the first games on Friday evening, at which time all rosters will be locked for the duration of the contest.
To assist you in your player analysis, the sortable stats are now loaded with the contest player salaries and position. These are the same salaries that are used for all weekly contests starting on Friday.
Come on down! The more, the merrier!
