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2020 Excel version of MLB schedule now available
Wed, 13 Nov 2019 (by RotoGuru)

Spreadsheet link: dailybaseballdata.com/dbd/MLB_schedule_2020.xls
Data source: MLB.com



Into hibernation
Thu, 31 Oct 2019 (by RotoGuru)

After a very entertaining World Series, DailyBaseballData.com now goes into hibernation for the off-season. Thanks for your support during 2019. Hope to see you back in 2020.



Playoff data
Mon, 30 Sep 2019 (by RotoGuru)

DailyBaseballData.com will continue to offer all usual reports and data throughout the MLB playoffs. Having said that, this blurb space will probably be much less active. With football and hoops both taking center stage, I don't think there's a need for blurbs.

Thanks for your continued presence!



Using Sabermetrics For Fantasy Baseball Part 16 - Interpreting Minor League Stats
Sat, 28 Sep 2019 (by contributed by RotoBaller.com)

(Originally published 4/3/19)

Once you've grown accustomed to having advanced tools to help make fantasy decisions, it can feel disorientating to be without them. Prospects are increasingly becoming a focal point in both real and fantasy baseball, but the minors simply do not have all of the data available for MLB players. For example, advanced plate discipline stats, Pitch Info, and anything Statcast-related are all currently unavailable for minor league campaigns.

Does this mean we go back to looking at ERA and batting average as the only indicators of future performance? Of course not! Instead, we do our best to work with what we have. The process begins by looking at the environment. Higher levels of competition result in more accurate data, so you should start by excluding anything lower than Double-A if a player's track record allows it.

Here's how to effectively use this data to give you an edge in your fantasy baseball league throughout the season.

In Leagues Of Their Own

The first point to remember is that the baseline for certain predictive metrics is different on the farm. Mike Podhorzer of FanGraphs.com had an excellent article detailing the specifics in 2017. For example, Double-A hitters collectively posted a .306 BABIP that year, while their Triple-A counterparts managed a .317 figure. Both marks are significantly higher than MLB's .300 BABIP, making a performance that looks fluky actually league-average.

Another common sticking point is IFFB%. Double-A batters posted a ludicrous 21.6% IFFB% on their fly balls in 2017, while their Triple-A counterparts were only slightly better (20.8%). This leads many fantasy owners to conclude that EVERY minor league prospect has a massive pop-up problem, but this is not the case. The stat is calculated differently on the farm, and you need to halve it to get something approaching an MLB projection.

Like MLB, each minor league and ballpark also has its own unique quirks and tendencies. For example, the Pacific Coast League is a Triple-A league notorious for inflating offensive statistics. If you want minor league ballpark factors, Baseball America posted them for 2016 here. If you want three-year factors, MiLB.com posted them for AA and AAA for 2014-2016. Unfortunately, there does not appear to be any more recent data available, so keep their age in mind when using these numbers.

For PCL players, a batting line may look ...

[click here to read the rest of the article on RotoBaller.com]



DraftKings Daily Fantasy Baseball Picks (9/27/19): MLB DFS Lineups
Fri, 27 Sep 2019 (by contributed by RotoBaller.com)

Welcome to Friday baseball on DraftKings. We have a fun 14-game slate on our hands that we can boost our bankroll with before football rolls around this weekend. As for the slate, it's a fun one. There are a couple of elite pitchers that are in much better spots than the field, but we'll have to find some value to fit those guys in.

Let's dive right in!

In this article, I will be providing you with my daily fantasy baseball lineup picks for DraftKings on 9/27/19. The lineup picks will range from some of the elite players to mid-priced options and value plays. Be sure to also check out all the MLB Rosters for today's slate.

DraftKings DFS Starting Pitchers

Walker Buehler - LAD @ SF - $11,700
This will be the final regular-season outing for Walker Buehler, who will start one of the first two games in the playoffs. It’s a great match-up for him to start feeling himself before the playoffs, facing off with the lifeless Giants in spacious AT&T Park. They rank 25th in baseball at home against righties and strikeout close to 26%. Buehler is certainly better at home, but this ballpark and lineup seem like a perfect combo for seven clean innings and a win.

James Paxton - NYY @ TEX - $11,200
This is a slate I would advise paying up at pitcher. James Paxton is a bit cheaper than Buehler, but the upside is similar. The Rangers are absolutely terrible against lefties, ranking 28th in baseball and striking out a whopping 27% of the time. Paxton has looked great recently, going six-plus innings in three of the last four starts. If he’s spotting his secondary pitches, we could easily be looking at six or seven innings and double-digit strikeouts. This is a bit of a riskier play and Buehler is the go-to move in cash games.

DraftKings Infielders

. . .

[click here to read the rest of the DraftKings Daily Fantasy Picks article on RotoBaller.com]



FanDuel MLB DFS Lineup Picks (9/26/19): Daily Fantasy Baseball Advice
Thu, 26 Sep 2019 (by contributed by RotoBaller.com)

Welcome to Thursday baseball on FanDuel. We have a fun slate on our hands, though it's a small one. The Mets are still hosting the Marlins, so we have a lineup to pick on. There are also some other options to choose from, and we'll get to those. Felix Hernandez is the worst pitcher on this slate and we'll be picking on him plenty.

Let's dive right in and find a top play at each position!

Be sure to also check out all the Vegas Odds for today's slate.

FanDuel DFS Pitchers

Zack Wheeler - NYM vs. MIA - $10,500
The Mets are facing off with the Marlins for the fourth night in a row, and Jacon deGrom finally shut them down last night. He went seven clean innings and struck out seven before the bullpen gave up a few. Wheeler will look to double down tonight, after going seven innings in three straight outings. They were all against tougher opponents, so this should be a relative cake walk. Wheeler has struck out a batter per inning on the season and is walking just over two per nine innings. The price isn't too crazy on Wheeler here and he seems like a pretty easy cash game option.

Sean Manaea - OAK @ SEA - $9,800
Sean Manaea has been phenomenal since returning from injury, allowing just three runs in 24 innings of work while striking out 25. The Mariners aren't great against lefties, ranking 24th in baseball with a .304 wOBA and 25% strikeout rate. The ballpark is spacious and Manaea uses that to his advantage a ton. He's certainly a tournament play as Wheeler is the safe option, but he will be half as owned and the upside for seven innings and double-digit strikeouts is there.

FanDuel DFS Infielders

. . .

[click here to read the rest of the article on RotoBaller.com]



DraftKings Daily Fantasy Baseball Picks (9/25/19): MLB DFS Lineups
Wed, 25 Sep 2019 (by contributed by RotoBaller.com)

We have a nice 12-gamer on our hands tonight with plenty to look at. Without a game in Coors Field, we at least have some balance to things. There are four or five pitchers worth targeting and we'll have to narrow them down. There are another four or five offenses that are in great spots, and we'll have to dissect those as we move along.

Let's dive in to some of the top plays on this slate!

In this article, I will be providing you with my daily fantasy baseball lineup picks for DraftKings on 9/25/19. The lineup picks will range from some of the elite players to mid-priced options and value plays. Be sure to also check out all the MLB Rosters for today's slate.

DraftKings DFS Starting Pitchers

Jacob deGrom - NYM vs. MIA - $12,000
This is pretty easy. Jacob deGrom has been right up there with Gerrit Cole in the second half as the best pitcher in all of baseball. You can almost pencil in seven innings and as many strikeouts. He's striking out 11 batters per nine on the season and is walking just 1.96. He now draws the Marlins, who rank dead last in baseball against right-handed pitching with a .277 team wOBA. They got to Matz and Syndergaard a bit the last two nights, but the fun ends tonight when deGrom slams the door.

Frankie Montas - OAK @ LAA - $10,100
Frankie Montas is returning from suspension today, and is supposedly all the way stretched out. Montas was dominant prior to being suspended, and he wasn't on an HGH that would have lead to much performance enhancement. He draws the Angels today, who rank in the bottom five of baseball against righties without Mike Trout in the lineup. Montas has struck out 9.70 batters per nine and has posted a sub .2885 wOBA against both lefties and righties. The upside is huge and I doubt many will be on him in his first game back. He's certainly a bit risky, but the upside is huge if I'm right and there is no pitch count.

DraftKings Infielders

. . .

[click here to read the rest of the DraftKings Daily Fantasy Picks article on RotoBaller.com]



DraftKings Daily Fantasy Baseball Picks (9/24/19): MLB DFS Lineups
Tue, 24 Sep 2019 (by contributed by RotoBaller.com)

This is the final Tuesday of the regular season and we have a full slate ahead of us. It’s been a great season up to this point and we want to start this article off with the best pitcher on the board.

While we don't have any weather issues, there are a ton of questionable lineups and pitch counts that need to be monitored. It's going to be a bizarre week, so treat lightly.

In this article, I will be providing you with my daily fantasy baseball lineup picks for DraftKings on 9/24/19. The lineup picks will range from some of the elite players to mid-priced options and value plays. Be sure to also check out all the Vegas Odds for today's slate.

DraftKings DFS Starting Pitchers

Gerrit Cole, HOU at SEA ($13,000)
Cole might be the best pitcher in baseball right now. While a 2.61 ERA and 0.91 WHIP is ridiculous in its own right, it’s no comparison to his absurd 39 percent K rate. That happens to be the best mark in baseball and it’s frightening just how good his swing-and-miss stuff is right now. Over his last 18 starts, Cole is providing a 1.76 ERA, 0.82 WHIP and 13. 6 K/9 rate. That’s bad news for a Mariners club who ranks 28th in K rate and bottom-10 in OBP and OPS. All of this has Cole entering this matchup as a –400 favorite.

Jake Odorizzi, MIN at DET ($10,400)
The Twins right-hander is in the midst of a breakout season and that alone makes him a fantastic option against this terrible Tigers offense. Let’s start with that matchup, with the Motor City Kitties ranked dead-last in runs scored, OBP, OPS, K rate and xwOBA. That’s a recipe for disaster against a pitcher with a 3.59 ERA and 1.24 WHIP. In three starts against Detroit this season, Odorizzi has a 2.00 ERA, 0.60 WHIP and 10.0 K/9 rate. That's why Odorizzi and the Twins enter this matchup as a –250 favorite

DraftKings Infielders

. . .

[click here to read the rest of the DraftKings Daily Fantasy Picks article on RotoBaller.com]



DraftKings Daily Fantasy Baseball Picks (9/23/19): MLB DFS Lineups
Mon, 23 Sep 2019 (by contributed by RotoBaller.com)

Welcome to Monday baseball on DraftKings! With all the football money floating around, it may be a good night to join some low dollar tournaments and cash games. You know people will get the itch and throw in a lineup after reading one article. It's dead money. We have just five game on the slate, but there is plenty to dive into.

Let's dive in to some of the top plays on this slate!

In this article, I will be providing you with my daily fantasy baseball lineup picks for DraftKings on 9/23/19. The lineup picks will range from some of the elite players to mid-priced options and value plays. Be sure to also check out all the MLB Rosters for today's slate.

DraftKings DFS Starting Pitchers

Patrick Corbin - WAS vs. PHI - $11,800
We only have five games on the slate tonight, so we can't be too picky at pitcher. Patrick Corbin doesn't have the greatest match-up against the Phillies, but he's been extremely consistent and he's by far the best pitcher on the slate. He's having a career year, striking out 10.52 batters per nine behind a 3.61 xFIP. The Phillies have been middle of the road against lefties, sporting a team .316 wOBA and 23.1% strikeout rate. Corbin is expensive on DraftKings, but he's easily the top raw projected pitcher.

Steven Matz - NYM vs. MIA - $7,600
Matz will be extremely popular tonight and rightfully so. The Marlins will head to New York and while they're better against southpaws, they're still a historically terrible offense. They've gotten even worse this last month, posting a .286 wOBA against left-handed pitching. Steven Matz struggled in his last start, but it didn't matter at all as it was in Coors Field. He's been up and down on the season, but he strikes out a batter per inning and you know the strikeouts are safe against this lineup. He's been great recently and this price is far too low for the elite match-up.

DraftKings Infielders

. . .

[click here to read the rest of the DraftKings Daily Fantasy Picks article on RotoBaller.com]



Using Sabermetrics For Fantasy Baseball Part 15 - Ballpark Factors
Fri, 20 Sep 2019 (by contributed by RotoBaller.com)

(Originally published 3/28/19)

If you have ever selected a streamable pitcher based on home park or benched an otherwise must-start arm at Coors Field, you already know how much a stadium can impact a player's bottom line.

Ballpark Factors quantify the influence each stadium has, allowing you to make the most of your fantasy team's real-life schedule.

Today, we continue our journey through baseball sabermetrics with a look at how each team's home stadium can play a factor in the fantasy baseball world.

How to Interpret Ballpark Factors

Ballpark factors are generally set to a base of 100 (or 1.000, which doesn't actually change anything), meaning that a park factor of 100 plays perfectly neutral. Factors greater than 100 signify that a given park allows more of that outcome, while numbers below 100 represent less of those outcomes.

There are multiple sources of ballpark factors, including FanGraphs, Baseball Prospectus, ESPN, and Statcorner. Each calculates their numbers a little bit differently, but they all use the base-100 scale listed above. There is no "correct" factor to use, as each system has its own merits. Just make sure you stick to a single source for any analysis to control for the variance.

The source you choose also dictates how much each point above or below 100 is "worth." A player only plays 50% of his games at home, with the rest of his schedule comprised of road games. Some sources such as Fangraphs halve all of their factors to accommodate this, making each point above or below 100 represent a one percent increase or decrease over a full season of stats. Other sources leave that job to you, making every point worth two percentage points in a player's final line.

If that's too confusing, it's fine to forget it. The only thing you need to know is that a park factor of 110 is considerably higher than a 105 mark.

When most fantasy owners think of ballpark factors, they think of homers. A park allowing plenty of bombs is viewed as a hitter's park, while parks allowing fewer dingers are more pitcher-friendly. Let's consider Yankee Stadium as an example.

Yankee Stadium is known as ...

[click here to read the rest of the article on RotoBaller.com]



DraftKings Daily Fantasy Baseball Picks (9/19/19): MLB DFS Lineups
Thu, 19 Sep 2019 (by contributed by RotoBaller.com)

We have a very quiet Thursday in major league baseball. Just nine games which are fairly evenly spaced throughout the day makes for a couple of underwhelming slates. The early slate is made up of three games before a five-game slate kicking off at 6:35 pm. As always here we are chasing the biggest prize pool and will, therefore, turn our attentions to the evening slate.

Thursday's evening slate brings us three monster favorites in the form of the Yankees, Indians, and Twins. Of those three two of the pitchers terrify me in Masahiro Tanaka and Kyle Gibson, and you will not find them in any of my lineups today. The best game of the day is in Chicago, where the Cubs square off against the Cardinals in a clash to potentially take control of the NL Central. Totals wise we have two games projected to go over 10 runs, Minnesota and Baltimore, with the other three games projected to see nine or more runs, so it should be a fun day in the majors despite the small slates.

In this article, I will be providing you with my daily fantasy baseball lineup picks for DraftKings on 9/19/19. The lineup picks will range from some of the elite players to mid-priced options and value plays Be sure to also check out all the Vegas Odds for today's slate.

DraftKings DFS Starting Pitchers

Mike Clevinger, CLE (vs. DET) - $11,400
Well, what is there to say really? This was between Clevinger and Jack Flaherty, and in the end, it came down to a higher upside pitcher facing a worse offense. It really is that simple on a slate where the mid-range pitching is not pretty that you just pay up for a man of this talent.

Drew VerHagen, DET (@ CLE) - $5,200
I am breaking a lot of rules here. Picking pitchers against each other and picking someone I really think is bad. However, in order to get Clevinger, I needed to cut costs everywhere I could and VerHagen is a perfect way to do that. At just $5,200 he actually offers you upside as well. In 37 2/3 inning since the start of August, he has allowed 10 earned runs and struck out 34 hitters. The Indians lineup is not the most terrifying in the world and VerHagen offers the chance for a two or three times return on investment at a dirt-cheap price.

DraftKings Infielders

. . .

[click here to read the rest of the DraftKings Daily Fantasy Picks article on RotoBaller.com]



FanDuel MLB DFS Lineup Picks (9/18/19): Daily Fantasy Baseball Advice
Wed, 18 Sep 2019 (by contributed by RotoBaller.com)

While we have a full 15-game schedule ahead of us, there are games spread all throughout the day. We have a five-game day slate and a 10-game nightcap. We’re going to try to offer up plays from both slates, so you can pick and choose which you want to play. With that in mind, let’s get to some of our best plays of the day.

We look pretty clear in terms of weather, so let's get into the action.

Be sure to also check out all the Vegas Odds for today's slate.

FanDuel DFS Pitchers

Gerrit Cole, HOU vs. TEX ($12,100)
How can we possibly fade Cole on this slate? This dude has been the best pitcher in the league this season and is facing one of the worst lineups in baseball here. Let’s start with that matchup, with the Rangers ranked 21st in OBP, 29th in K rate and 20th in wOBA. That spells disaster against a guy like Cole, with the Astro righty pitching to a 2.62 ERA, 0.91 WHIP and 39 percent K rate. That strikeout rate happens to be the best mark in the Majors and it’s scary that Cole has double-digit Ks in six straight outings. That’s why Cole and the Astros enter this matchup as a –500 favorite.

Homer Bailey, OAK vs. KC ($8,200)
Bailey has been a different pitcher since joining the A’s and it’s really no surprise when you consider that Oakland Coliseum is one of the most pitcher-friendly parks in the Majors. That pairs beautifully with Bailey’s stuff, with the right-hander pitching to a 2.25 ERA, 0.97 WHIP and 8.7 K/9 rate over his last six starts. Those brilliant numbers are scary for a struggling offense like this, with the Royals ranked 25th in wOBA, 27th in runs scored, 26th in OBP and 27th in OPS. All of that has Bailey entering this fixture as a –230 favorite.

FanDuel DFS Infielders

. . .

[click here to read the rest of the article on RotoBaller.com]



FanDuel MLB DFS Lineup Picks (9/17/19): Daily Fantasy Baseball Advice
Tue, 17 Sep 2019 (by contributed by RotoBaller.com)

Welcome to free money Tuesday! FanDuel knows what's up, as everyone has their balances full after week two of NFL. FanDuel is offering an "enormous" Grand Slam to draw in some of that money and we should see plenty of stupid money in tournaments. As for tonight's slate, it will be a fun one.

We have a game in Coors Field, but also five or six other offenses that are worth considering. As for pitcher, Justin Verlander is on the slate, but he's expensive and you do need to pay for some bats tonight. Let's dive right in and find a top play at each position.

Be sure to also check out all the Vegas Odds for today's slate.

FanDuel DFS Pitchers

Yu Darvish - CHC vs. CIN - $10,400
Yu Darvish has finally looked like the pitcher the Cubs we’re hoping for, and he’s done it for longer than just a couple games. He struck out 14 Padres in his last outing and has his insane strikeout stuff working. He’s given up a combined one earned run over the last three games, and this match-up against the Reds is the easiest one yet. They rank 26th against righties on the season with a team .293 wOBA and 25% strikeout rate. There’s no such thing as safe when it comes to Yu Darvish, but this is as safe as it gets.

Marco Gonzales - SEA @ PIT - $7,300
Gonzales has struggled a bit recently, but those struggles have come in tough match-ups (Astros, Rangers). Gonzales has done good work in games that you’d expect, and he gets another one of those tonight in Pittsburgh. The Pirates are terrible against lefties, ranking 29th in all of baseball with a .282 team wOBA. Gonzales has actually been a reverse splits pitcher, so the tons of righties they’ll pile into the order will actually hurt them. Gonzales is affordable on both sites and a great way to save at pitcher on this slate.

FanDuel DFS Infielders

. . .

[click here to read the rest of the article on RotoBaller.com]



Using Sabermetrics for Fantasy Baseball Part 14 - Statcast Expected Stats
Sat, 14 Sep 2019 (by contributed by RotoBaller.com)

(Originally published 3/25/19)

Statcast is a valuable tool for fantasy analysis, and it can be easy to look at a stat called "Expected Batting Average" and blindly use it as your projection moving forward. Of course, proper use of these metrics is a little bit more nuanced than that.

Our series on how to make sabermetrics more accessible to fantasy owners continues with a closer look at one of the newer Statcast metrics. To check out my previous explanation of Statcast for Pitchers, click here.

Let's begin by identifying what the Expected Metrics are and how they work.

How To Use Statcast's Expected Metrics In Fantasy

The first is xBA, or Expected Batting Average. This statistic is calculated using Hit Probability, itself a stat measuring how often a batted ball with a particular exit velocity and launch angle has fallen in for a hit since Statcast was introduced in 2015. For example, a line drive to the outfield that has historically fallen in for a hit 80 percent of the time counts as 80% of a hit by Hit Probability.

As of January 2019, the Hit Probability formula was modified to include the batter's Statcast Sprint Speed, more accurately representing their ability to beat out a ground ball. xBA is simply a batting average produced using Hit Probability, actual K%, and official ABs. If you play in a traditional 5X5 roto league, this is the Expected Stat you'll probably use the most.

Next up is Expected Slugging Percentage, or xSLG. It is calculated in the same manner as xBA, except that each batted ball is weighted according to its probability of being a single, double, triple, or home run instead of just a hit. If your league counts slugging percentage, you might get good use out of this stat. It can also be one tool to help you identify if a particular pitcher is getting hit hard or simply getting unlucky, though there are limits to this type of analysis.

Finally, we have Expected Weighted On Base Average, or xwOBA. It is calculated the same way xSLG is, except real-world walks and HBP are added to the equation. Each result is also assigned a linear weight with more math than the simple multiplication used to calculate slugging percentage. This is the stat with the most real-world value, but doesn't translate that well to fantasy unless you play in a realistic Points format.

The principle value of all three metrics is ...

[click here to read the rest of the article on RotoBaller.com]



DraftKings Daily Fantasy Baseball Picks (9/13/19): MLB DFS Lineups
Fri, 13 Sep 2019 (by contributed by RotoBaller.com)

Welcome to Friday baseball! I hope all of you are having a wonderful week and let's hope it gets even better entering the weekend. I may be able to help with a few plays to boost your bankroll. This slate is an interesting one, and it's worth multi-entering a few tournaments.

We have quite a few pitchers worth considering, but I would say a couple stand out above the rest. As for hitting, there aren't too many gas cans to pick on. There are a few, and we'll make sure we target them. Let's dive in and find a top play at each position!

In this article, I will be providing you with my daily fantasy baseball lineup picks for DraftKings on 9/13/19. The lineup picks will range from some of the elite players to mid-priced options and value plays Be sure to also check out all the Vegas Odds for today's slate.

DraftKings DFS Starting Pitchers

Gerrit Cole - HOU @ KC - $12,200
I actually live next to the Houston Astros spring training facility and loved driving up there to watch this pitching staff throw bullpens. Cole stood out like no other. His basic bullpens grew crowds from the team and staff daily. If you want a few cool videos of him throwing bullpens, find me on Twitter. As for tonight, it doesn’t get much better than Cole here. He’s struck out a whopping 43 batters over the last three games and now sees a match-up with the lowly KC Royals. They rank 18th in baseball against righties, but drop to 26th in power and strikeout 24% of the time. Cole is in a tier of his own on this slate.

Andrew Heaney - LAA vs. TB - $9,900
Andrew Heaney is quite an interesting pitcher. He seems to be all over the place production-wise, but is getting through five innings no matter what and has been solid. He now gets to match-up wit the Tampa Bay Rays, who’s best bats are all left-handed. They rank 23rd against lefties in baseball with a .299 wOBA and 24.7% strikeout rate. Heaney strikes out 10 batters per nine innings and has shown us crazy upside very recently. The ballpark helps and certainly hurts the Rays. Heaney is solid at his price as an SP1 or 2.

DraftKings Infielders

. . .

[click here to read the rest of the DraftKings Daily Fantasy Picks article on RotoBaller.com]




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Thursday's Starting Lineups

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