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A "Loose Pitcher" is one who throws Several Additional Pitches
Sat, 20 Jul 2019 (by Clifton Neeley of baseballVMI.com)

[reprinted from 2017]

Splitter - Used (1%) League Wide

Average Hit/Strike Rate For 2016 = 9.69%

The Splitter is essentially a change-up. It is thrown with the fingers split wide apart to give the appearance of a fastball, either two-seam or four-seam. However, the wide fingers allow arm, elbow, wrist and finger snap to appear strong, but the velocity is inhibited. There may be other variations of the splitter that I am not aware how the pitcher performs it, but this description probably covers most of the philosophy and mechanics. Since some of the velocity is taken off this pitch, then the effect of the air density is lessened as in the case of the change-up. It is used more as a surprise than as a movement challenge to the hitter. The Splitter is not used frequently and probably for good reason. It is one of those pitches that a Loose Pitcher can use effectively one day (especially against a High Plus VMI Team) and then get taken advantage of on the next (especially against a High Minus VMI Team).

The Splitter is most effective as a counter pitch to the two-seam or four-seam, but can also be an additional pitch in a slew of off-speed pitches. As I mentioned in another recent article, a "Loose Pitcher" presents many ways in which to get a hitter out. However, a Loose Pitcher also presents many ways by which to lose a game, especially to a team who sports a High Minus VMI. When using the VMI, look for a team who is High Minus against a pitcher who would probably be considered Loose. That is a combination that favors the hitters.

When you are utilizing our database at baseballvmi – keep in mind that you can narrow the pitch data down to a single game by using the team name and the specific date, but that is only where the date is one of the options listed.

Knuckleball - (1% of the total pitches thrown in MLB)

Hit/Strike Rate for 2016 = 9.12%

The "Knuckleballer" is a category of its own

Oh, the knuckleball. It … [click to view the entire article]


Visual Memory by Clifton Neeley, creator of the Visual Memory Index© and author of the web-site www.baseballvmi.com. Clifton pitched and played baseball and fast-pitch softball in the mountainous southwest Colorado area from 4,000 feet in Grand Junction to 6,000 feet in Durango to 9,000 feet in Telluride prior to his college experience in baseball.

DraftKings Daily Fantasy Baseball Picks (7/19/19): MLB DFS Lineups
Fri, 19 Jul 2019 (by contributed by RotoBaller.com)

Welcome to Friday baseball on DraftKings! There are plenty of tournaments to get excited about tonight, including a qualifier to the $4M MLB live Final. The featured contest of the night is the "Mega $888s" Where the top winner will bring home $100k. If that's too rich for your blood, the Hidden Ball trick will award $20K to just an $11 entry. Let's get to it!

We have plenty of options on this slate, in terms of both pitching and offenses. There are four or five aces worth considering and none of which should be overly popular. There are then another three of four quality step-down options, so I think you'll have the chance to make the right call tonight without the masses all being with you. As for the offense, we have three offenses with run projections over six runs. It's going to be a fun night!

In this article, I will be providing you with my daily fantasy baseball lineup picks for DraftKings on 7/19/19. The lineup picks will range from some of the elite players to mid-priced options and value plays.

DraftKings DFS Starting Pitchers

Jacob deGrom - NYM @ SF (Beede) $10,600
Pitching is pretty interesting tonight. On the high-end, Verlander and Ryu will both be relatively popular and have solid match-ups. With that being said, I prefer the discount on Jacob deGrom given the match-up and ballpark he's pitching in. Oracle Park is the league's best pitching park and the Giants rank 28th against right-handed pitching. They strikeout 26% of the time and sport a pitiful .171 ISO. deGrom has been one of the best pitchers in baseball, sporting a sub .294 wOBA against both sides of the plate while striking out 11.27 batters per nine. deGrom is a safe, but has insane CGSO upside with a leash over 100 pitches.

Brendan McKay - TB vs. CWS (Lopez) $8,700
We've witnessed three outings out of McKay thus far, and he's been great twice. He struggled against the Yankees, but I'm not sure we can hold that against him with that gauntlet of a lineup. This White Sox lineup is a lot like the last team he faced, the Orioles. They have a few good hitters in the middle of the order, but fall off quickly and strikeout plenty (25.6%). Brendan McKay has consistently been over 9.5 K's per nine innings throughout the minors and the strikeouts will follow very soon here. He's under $9K on DK and a very safe SP2 in both formats.

DraftKings Infielders

. . .

[click here to read the rest of the DraftKings Daily Fantasy Picks article on RotoBaller.com]



DraftKings Daily Fantasy Baseball Picks (7/18/19): MLB DFS Lineups
Thu, 18 Jul 2019 (by contributed by RotoBaller.com)

As always on a Thursday we have a split slate to give us a day loaded with baseball. However, this week sees just five games on the afternoon slate, with the remaining eight residing in the evening and on the "featured" slate for DFS players.

Unsurprisingly, the Cleveland Indians behind Trevor Bauer are the biggest favorites of the day. However, quite a lot of the other matchups are considered to be fairly even, which should make for an interesting evening. The scoring is expected to be fairly even on the slate, with most games totals residing in the 9-to-10 region. The notable exception is the 7.5 line in what should be a fascinating duel between Noah Syndergaard and Madison Bumgarner out in San Francisco.

In this article, I will be providing you with my daily fantasy baseball lineup picks for DraftKings on 7/18/19. The lineup picks will range from some of the elite players to mid-priced options and value plays. Be sure to also check out all the Vegas Odds for today's slate.

DraftKings DFS Starting Pitchers

Charlie Morton, TB (@ NYY) - $10,200
Morton has just simply been immense this season, be that at home (2.80 ERA) or at home (1.97 ERA). Admittedly one of his worse starts this season was in Yankees Stadium, but that is not always a reliable indicator of future performance. Interestingly, the Yankees score on average nearly 1.5 runs per game less at home, and the under has hit in 33 of their 55 games this year, suggesting scoring has been reduced. Morton has plenty of upside as well as a relatively nice floor, given he averages 5.91 innings per start and has a 31.2 K% to bolster those innings numbers.

Julio Teheran, ATL (vs. WAS) - $6,400
This is a bit of a gamble because the weather in Atlanta should be hitter-friendly. However, Teheran has been immense at home this season, with a 2.66 ERA and opposing batting average of .236. There have been a number of times this season I have shied away because of tough conditions only to see him produce a wonderful performance. This time he is facing a Nationals offense which ranks 15th in batting average (.254), 16th in runs (461), 17th in home runs (128) and 15th in slugging percentage (15th).

DraftKings Infielders

. . .

[click here to read the rest of the DraftKings Daily Fantasy Picks article on RotoBaller.com]



Using Sabermetrics for Fantasy Baseball Part 10 - Pitcher Batted Ball Distribution
Wed, 17 Jul 2019 (by contributed by RotoBaller.com)

(Originally published 3/4/19)

The league average batted ball distribution in 2018 was 21.5% liners, 43.2% grounders and 35.4% flies. We have previously seen how pitchers may specialize in either grounders or fly balls.

Fly ball pitchers have a BABIP advantage over their ground ball-inducing counterparts, since fly balls (.117 BABIP in 2018) consistently have lower BABIPs than worm killers (.236). Yet most fantasy owners prefer to roster ground ball pitchers to the point that GB% is frequently cited as a peripheral stat to determine fantasy viability. Why is this the case?

Let's get to it!

How to Interpret Pitcher Batted Ball Distribution

The reason is slugging percentage. Fly balls had a collective .690 slugging percentage in 2018 despite the lower BABIP, while grounders had just a .258 SLG. As Khris Davis hits more home runs than most in part by elevating the ball more frequently, fly ball pitchers are liable to give more up by allowing more airborne baseballs. Fantasy owners can live with the odd single through the infield if it means fewer homers allowed.

This line of thinking makes intuitive sense, but I feel it may be overstated at times. Good fly ball pitchers tend to post HR/FB rates a little better than the league average, somewhat limiting the long balls they allow. A pitcher's home park may also help suppress home runs allowed. Once dingers are under control, a fly ball pitcher actually offers several advantages over a ground ball specialist.

For example, fantasy owners may reap the benefits of a lower WHIP by investing in a pitcher that makes his living in the air. If the ball leaves the yard, a fly ball pitcher also has a greater probability of it being a solo shot instead of having to watch a crooked number go up on the scoreboard.

Last season, Washington's Max Scherzer was an excellent example of ...

[click here to read the rest of the article on RotoBaller.com]



DraftKings Daily Fantasy Baseball Picks (7/16/19): MLB DFS Lineups
Tue, 16 Jul 2019 (by contributed by RotoBaller.com)

We have a fascinating slate ahead of us, as it’s actually one of the highest projected scoring days of the season. That means it’s imperative to find value and I’ll do my best to give you some cheap options.

In this article, I will be providing you with my daily fantasy baseball lineup picks for DraftKings on 7/16/19. The lineup picks will range from some of the elite players to mid-priced options and value plays.

Today's Weather

We have rain projected in Philadelphia, Chicago, St.Louis, Colorado, New York, Cleveland and Baltimore, so be sure to check forecasts prior to submitting lineups. Wind doesn't seem to be an issue though, with no game projected to have winds higher than 10 MPH.

DraftKings DFS Starting Pitchers

Jack Flaherty, STL vs. PIT ($7,400)
Flaherty has been a big disappointment recently but he’s simply too good to be priced this cheaply. Dating back to last season, Flaherty is generating a 3.85 ERA and 1.15 WHIP, despite struggling recently. He’s doing that while posting a K rate just shy of 30 percent and it’s just a matter of time before his ERA lowers and his price rises. Facing Pittsburgh is not necessarily scary either, with the Pirates ranking 18th in both runs scored and xwOBA. In addition, we anticipate Flaherty entering this matchup as a –160 favorite.

Zach Plesac, CLE vs. DET ($7,000)
Man, it was tough to pick a second pitcher but Plesac is a great option if he toes the rubber for the Indians. He was actually sent down prior to the All-Star break because of a few bad outings but he’s in a great spot to succeed here. Before sliding in his last three starts, Plesac actually pitched to a 2.33 ERA and 0.96 WHIP over his first six starts. That sort of upside is huge against a lineup like this, with the Tigers ranked 29th in runs scored, OPS, K rate and wOBA. That’s why Plesac will likely be a –180 favorite in this game.

DraftKings Infielders

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[click here to read the rest of the DraftKings Daily Fantasy Picks article on RotoBaller.com]



DraftKings Daily Fantasy Baseball Picks (7/15/19): MLB DFS Lineups
Mon, 15 Jul 2019 (by contributed by RotoBaller.com)

Monday's schedule in Major League Baseball has a total of 11 games, with 10 evening contests starting after 7:05 p.m. ET. Be sure to double-check the weather and the lineups before finalizing your roster.

In this article, I will be providing you with my daily fantasy baseball lineup picks for DraftKings on 7/15/19. The lineup picks will range from some of the elite players to mid-priced options and value plays.

Today's Weather

The only trouble spot in terms of precipitation will be Busch Stadium in St. Louis, where the remnants from Tropical Storm Barry will be rolling through the area. There is a 60 percent chance of precipitation at first pitch, tapering off to 40 percent by 9 p.m. CT. After 10 p.m. CT, the chances diminish significantly, so this game might be played, perhaps with a multiple-hour delay.

The only other spot affected by the elements will be at Wrigley Field for the game between the Cincinnati Reds and Chicago Cubs. The winds will be blowing out directly to center field at 11-14 mph.

DraftKings DFS Starting Pitchers

Adam Plutko - P, CLE vs. DET ($7,800)
Plutko moves back into the starting rotation after a month-long stint coming out of the bullpen. Facing the Tigers is a nice way to get back on track, as the Indians are 24-7 in their past 31 games at home against Detroit, and 51-18 in the past 69 meetings overall. The Indians will be facing LHP Daniel Norris, and they're 9-2 in the past 11 vs. LHP and 12-3 in the past 15 inside the division. It's a favorable matchup for Plutko at a nice price.

Rick Porcello - P, BOS vs. TOR ($6,300)
The Red Sox host the Blue Jays looking to bounce back after dropping two of three over the weekend to the Dodgers. It's a great play on spot for Porcello and the Red Sox, as the Blue Jays are just 1-5 in the past six road games and 2-8 in RHP Trent Thornton's past 10 starts against teams with a winning overall record. Toronto is also 16-35 in the past 51 meetings with Boston, and 4-12 in the past 16 trips to Fenway

DraftKings Infielders

. . .

[click here to read the rest of the DraftKings Daily Fantasy Picks article on RotoBaller.com]



FanDuel MLB DFS Lineup Picks (7/12/19): Daily Fantasy Baseball Advice
Fri, 12 Jul 2019 (by contributed by RotoBaller.com)

We've got every team back in action in the first full day of games since the break! The all day slate starts at 2:20pm eastern and covers every game, including the early Pirates-Cubs and Nationals-Phillies matchups. The main slate starts at 7:05pm eastern.

In this article, I will be providing you with my daily fantasy baseball lineup picks for FanDuel on 7/12/2019. The picks will range from some of the elite players to mid-priced options and value plays.

FanDuel DFS Pitchers

Caleb Smith: P, MIA vs NYM ($8,000)
Smith put together an excellent first half to the season, with a 3.50 ERA that's mostly supported by his 3.64 SIERA and 3.73 Deserved Run Average. His 31.1% K-rate is a phenomenal mark, which is thanks to his awesome slider and strong command of his fastball. Smith should fare well against the Mets at home, in one of the best pitcher's environments in the league. Smith deserves to be at a higher price with the way he's pitched this year, so take advantage while you can.

Yu Darvish: P, CHC vs PIT ($6,700)
Darvish's season has gone about as bad as anybody could have imagined. Although, with 30 strikeouts to just five walks over his last four starts, there's some reason for optimism. Darvish is a very risky play, but his 26.5% K-rate on the year shows that he's still got a high ceiling with his ability to rack up strikeouts. If you're looking to go cheap at starting pitcher, Darvish is worth a look in GPP contests.

FanDuel DFS Infielders

. . .

[click here to read the rest of the article on RotoBaller.com]



When is the Sinker Most Effective on the ADI and VMI Scale?
Sun, 07 Jul 2019 (by Clifton Neeley of baseballVMI.com)

[reprinted from 2017]

Since we can divide MLB data into performance categories that show how much ball movement the pitcher had purely from the makeup of the air, we can see the pitcher’s performance against the ADI. We can also see the hitter’s performance when the ball is moving more and when the hitter is not used to the movement vs when he is comfortable in the climate. It gets very intriguing when we include different types of pitches within that same grid. You can do a similar study on the pitcher and hitter stats on our website, but you may glean some good information from our study on the “Pitch-Mix.”

Sinker - Used (7%) League Wide

Average Hit/Strike Rate For 2016 =11.02%

"Reverse" pitcher throws the Sinker or Two-Seamer far more often than the traditional four-seamer

The Sinker is another pitch, which if used in more than 20% of the total pitches thrown by the starting pitcher, identifies him as a Reverse Pitcher. If you note that the pitcher your hitting team or player is matched up against in today's or tomorrow's game is prone to throwing a high number of Sinkers, then he will be more successful against a High Plus VMI team than a High Minus VMI team with that pitch. A "Reverse" pitcher is one who throws a Sinker above 90 mph as one of his primary two pitches. So, a High Plus team will be more successful against a Tight Pitcher and a High Minus team will be more successful against a Reverse Pitcher.

A sinking pitch can be thrown several ways. The value is in the speed. Gravity alone will cause a pitch to drop, but disguising it, plus keeping it in the zone or just below the zone in the 90 mph ranges, is the key. It appears that some pitchers rotate the ball with a similar spin to a bullet that is, with the nose (or center of the rotation) pointed toward the catcher. With no backward spin, the ball will not lift, so the speed and the gravity can be the primary forces at play.

In heavier air, the Sinker will sink more because of the seams that are revolving around the perimeter "nose" of the ball and thus acting as a sort of parachute to slow the ball. As you can probably imagine, in lighter air the ball will travel further before sinking and so becomes a late breaking pitch. At high speeds in either environment, it is devastating to a hitter who is sitting on a four-seam fastball, as most do.

Cutter (or Cut Fastball - Used 5%) League Wide

Average Hit/Strike Rate For 2016 = 9.59%

A "Loose Pitcher" is one who throws the Curveball, Cutter, Splitter and maybe a Slider

The Cut Fastball can be thrown either … [click to view the entire article]


Visual Memory by Clifton Neeley, creator of the Visual Memory Index© and author of the web-site www.baseballvmi.com. Clifton pitched and played baseball and fast-pitch softball in the mountainous southwest Colorado area from 4,000 feet in Grand Junction to 6,000 feet in Durango to 9,000 feet in Telluride prior to his college experience in baseball.

FanDuel MLB DFS Lineup Picks (7/6/19): Daily Fantasy Baseball Advice
Sat, 06 Jul 2019 (by contributed by RotoBaller.com)

We’re just two days away from the All-Star break, so let’s build up some bankroll for the second half!

In this article, I will be providing you with my daily fantasy baseball lineup picks for FanDuel on 7/6/2019. The picks will range from some of the elite players to mid-priced options and value plays.

FanDuel DFS Pitchers

Kenta Maeda: P, LAD vs. SD ($6,700)
Maeda’s price is way too low on FanDuel. This stud righty is pitching to a 3.78 ERA and 1.10 WHIP, which is pretty much on par with his career averages. That pairs beautifully with his 3.70 career xFIP and 26 percent K rate. That means he should be about $9,000 in a matchup like this, as we’re looking at a $$2,300 discount. Facing San Diego is nothing we need to worry about either, with the Padres ranking 27th in K rate, 25th in OBP and 24th in wOBA. The fact that the only potent bats in the Padres order are righties only adds to Maeda’s intrigue, entering this game as a –165 favorite.

Miles Mikolas: P, STL at SF ($6,600)
Mikolas hasn't given us a whole lot of reason to use him this season but this price is pretty tempting. This is still a guy who has a 3.35 ERA and 1.13 WHIP dating back to the start of last season, which is incredible production from someone priced so cheaply. The icing on the cake here is this matchup though, with the Giants ranking bottom-three in runs scored, OPS and xwOBA. Not to mention, pitching in Oracle Park is likely the most pitching friendly environment in the Majors, which is huge for a contact-pitcher like Mikolas in a game with a total of 8.

FanDuel DFS Infielders

. . .

[click here to read the rest of the article on RotoBaller.com]



DraftKings Daily Fantasy Baseball Picks (7/5/19): MLB DFS Lineups
Fri, 05 Jul 2019 (by contributed by RotoBaller.com)

Welcome to Friday baseball on DraftKings! Hopefully every stayed safe on the 4th and maybe even cashed some DFS lineups. Whether you played last night or not, we'll catch you up with tonight's slate and dissect some top plays at each position. The baseball gods have blessed us with a 13 game slate full of twists and turns.

There are some ways to pay up at pitcher, but there's a lot of expensive bats and you'll have to sacrifice somewhere. We have some solid value arms, but they may get popular in which case there would be value in spending up. Let's find some value that won't be overly popular and some bats they'll help you afford. Let's dive in!

In this article, I will be providing you with my daily fantasy baseball lineup picks for DraftKings on 7/5/19. The lineup picks will range from some of the elite players to mid-priced options and value plays. Be sure to also check out all the Vegas Odds for today's slate.

DraftKings DFS Starting Pitchers

Dakota Hudson - STL @ SF - $7,600
There are a few expensive pitching options, but you don’t need me to let you know they are good plays. We’ll instead focus on two cheaper options that will help you open up for some pricey bats. Hudson and the Cards go into San Francisco as favorites in what should be a low-scoring affair (8 O/U). The Giants rank 29th in all of baseball against righties, sporting a .284 team wOBA and striking out 25% of the time. Dakota Hudson fell apart in his last start, but he only gave up one earned run. Over the five prior games, Hudson put up 20+ fantasy points three times and will look to return there tonight. He strikes out 27% of the batters he faces and is a very strong arm against righties. This match-up just sets up well and the price is extremely friendly.

Julio Teheran - ATL vs. MIA - $6,600
Teheran is even cheaper and in the best match-up in all of baseball. If you don’t already know that’s the Marlins, you haven’t played much DFS this season. The Marlins have ranked dead last against right-handed pitching with a .271 team wOBA and absurd 27% strikeout rate. You then have Julio Teheran, who’s an ace-level pitcher vs righties and a below average one vs lefties. The Marlins only have two or three lefties max and Teheran will split through the lineup with ease. He’s far too cheap here and a guy I’m willing to plant my flag in. The upside for seven innings of dominant baseball is up for grabs here. They still consider Teheran the ace and will let him go against the Marlins if pitching well.

DraftKings Infielders

. . .

[click here to read the rest of the DraftKings Daily Fantasy Picks article on RotoBaller.com]



Using Sabermetrics For Fantasy Baseball Part 9 - Pitcher BABIP
Wed, 03 Jul 2019 (by contributed by RotoBaller.com)

(Originally published 2/25/19)

While FIP is a useful tool to predict a pitcher's future ERA performance, fantasy owners should remember that ERA, not FIP, is what really matters in most formats. This means that we are interested in the "luck" that separates the two statistics.

While some of this luck is unpredictable, we can and should predict some of what goes into a pitcher's bottom line. BABIP plays a big role in the variation of a pitcher's perceived luck, but it may not be as clear-cut as it seems.

Let's get to it!

How to Interpret BABIP for Pitchers

When calculating BABIP for hitters, we assume a neutral defense because they figure to see a balance of poor and skilled defenders as they travel around the league. This is not true for pitchers, as they always pitch in front of their own club's defenders. A team with Andrelton Simmons and his 21 Defensive Runs Saved (DRS) figures to provide better defense to its pitchers than a team that lacks a platinum glover. DRS is a counting stat like HR or RBI that measures how strong a defender a particular player is, with zero corresponding to an average defender and negative numbers possible for weak gloves. A better defense helps pitchers outperform their FIP.

Statcast makes it even easier to look at the quality of a pitcher's outfield defense. Outs Above Average, or OAA, measures each outfielder's defensive contributions using Catch Probability. If a batted ball is caught by an outfielder, the outfielder receives OAA credit equal to 1 - the ball's Catch Probability. For example, a successful catch on a ball with a 40% Catch Probability is worth 0.6 OAA (1 - 0.4 = 0.6).

Outfielders also lose points equal to the batted ball's Catch Probability if they flub the catch. Missing the ball in the example above would, therefore, subtract 0.4 from the player's OAA. Lorenzo Cain of the Milwaukee Brewers led baseball with 22 OAA last season, helping Milwaukee to the best defensive outfield in baseball (30 total OAA).

BABIP is also partially determined by ...

[click here to read the rest of the article on RotoBaller.com]



FanDuel MLB DFS Lineup Picks (7/2/19): Daily Fantasy Baseball Advice
Tue, 02 Jul 2019 (by contributed by RotoBaller.com)

Welcome to Tuesday baseball! We have a full slate of game on our hands and plenty to look at. With a game in Coors Field, we'll have to consider the salary of everyone and look at some cheap pitching. With that said, there are a lot of expensive arms worth considering on the slate and we'll have to decide which way to go. Let's get into it!

In this article, I will be providing you with my daily fantasy baseball lineup picks for FanDuel on 7/2/2019. The picks will range from some of the elite players to mid-priced options and value plays.

FanDuel DFS Pitchers

Charlie Morton - TAM vs. BAL ($10,800)
It’s an interesting night at pitcher. I think most would prefer to pay up, but the bats on this slate are lethal and there are a lot of expensive offenses worth paying up for. The top three options (Bauer, Morton, Corbin) are all in play and a case can be made for each in tournaments. In cash games, the consistency of Morton and the quality of this Orioles offense makes it easy. The Rays let him exceed 100 pitches regularly and the Rays are huge favorites (-220) to win this game. Morton is extremely safe and where you should look if you’re comfortable with a few value bats.

Reynaldo Lopez - CHW vs. DET ($6,600)
There is no such thing as safe in this realm, but Reynaldo Lopez has as much upside as anyone on the slate and is under $7k. He’s facing the same squad he struck out 14 against a couple of months ago and will look to use them as a “get right” after struggling recently. The Tigers tank 29th in baseball against righties, ahead of just the Miami Marlins. They strikeout 26% of the time and Lopez K’s his opponents 29%. As long as he can keep his fastball in the zone, the Tigers will chase secondary pitches and let Lopez rack up the strikeouts once again. With so many pricey bats and a game in Coors, I’ll be looking towards Lopez in a lot of my tournaments.

FanDuel DFS Infielders

. . .

[click here to read the rest of the article on RotoBaller.com]



DraftKings Daily Fantasy Baseball Picks (7/1/19): MLB DFS Lineups
Mon, 01 Jul 2019 (by contributed by RotoBaller.com)

Monday's schedule in Major League Baseball has a total of six games, with five evening contests. Be sure to double-check the weather and the lineups before finalizing your roster.

In this article, I will be providing you with my daily fantasy baseball lineup picks for DraftKings on 7/1/19. The lineup picks will range from some of the elite players to mid-priced options and value plays.

Today's Weather

There are a total of just six games on the slate, with two games played under a dome or retractable roof. There is no precipitation in the forecast across the four outdoor venues. Only the Angels-Rangers battle in Arlington will face wind factors, with a stiff 10-13 mph breeze blowing in from right field to home plate.

DraftKings DFS Starting Pitchers

Mike Minor - P, TEX vs. LAA ($10,100)
The most expensive pitching option on the board is the newly-minted All-Star Minor. The Rangers have ripped off five straight victories in Minor's starts, and they're 5-2 in his past seven starts at home while going 18-8 in the past 26 overall at home. They're also 7-1 in the past eight at home against a left-handed starting pitcher. All of the stars are aligning for a strong outing and win by Minor.

Trevor Williams - P, PIT vs. CHC ($8,100)
The pickins are pretty slim in terms of pitching on Monday's evening slate, as Minor is the most expensive option on the board. After that, it's San Diego Padres RHP Logan Allen ($9,200). Exactly. Williams is a good play against a Cubs team which has struggled on the road, going just 3-10 over their past 13 road contests.

DraftKings Infielders

. . .

[click here to read the rest of the DraftKings Daily Fantasy Picks article on RotoBaller.com]



Putting a Microscope on MLB Pitchers Using the ADI and the VMI
Sat, 29 Jun 2019 (by Clifton Neeley of baseballVMI.com)

[reprinted from 2017]

Since we can divide MLB data into performance categories that show how much ball movement the pitcher had purely from the makeup of the air, we can see the pitcher’s performance against the ADI. We can also see the hitter’s performance when the ball is moving more and when the hitter is not used to the movement vs when he is comfortable in the climate. It gets very intriguing when we include different types of pitches within that same grid. You can do a similar study on the pitcher and hitter stats on our website, but you may glean some good information from our study on the “Pitch-Mix.”

"Reverse Pitcher"

If you note that the pitcher your hitting team or player is matched up against (in today's or tomorrow’s game) is prone to throwing a high number of two-seamers, then he will be more successful against a High Plus VMI team than a High Minus VMI team with that pitch. We, at Baseball VMI, have identified a pitcher who throws more 2-seamers than 20% of his pitches as a "Reverse" pitcher. A Reverse pitcher is one who throws a downward breaking Two-Seamer, Sinker, or Cut Fastball above 90 mph as one of his primary two pitches. So, a High Plus team will be more successful against a Tight Pitcher and a High Minus team will be more successful against a Reverse Pitcher.

While a manager cannot change starting pitchers due to a VMI match-up, a "Reverse Pitcher" should not be called upon as a reliever for a team that sports a High Minus VMI. "When" is crucial to a pitcher's success. If you look at the production rate of pitchers when the VMI is high negative in our database, you will see the hit percent elevated on both the two-seamer and the sinker. This is a direct result of the distance a hitter must reach as he adjusts to hit the downward angling two-seam and sinker (both reverse pitches) in the high velocity ranges when he has set up for the four-seamer. If the hitter happened to guess right and was expecting a sinker, for example, then he would have a higher hit rate, but that is an inconsistent way to play baseball and players know better than to try to out-guess the pitcher very often.

Change-Up - Used (10%) League Wide

Average Hit/Strike Rate for 2016 = 9.98%

The change-up is obviously …. [click to view the entire article]


Visual Memory by Clifton Neeley, creator of the Visual Memory Index© and author of the web-site www.baseballvmi.com. Clifton pitched and played baseball and fast-pitch softball in the mountainous southwest Colorado area from 4,000 feet in Grand Junction to 6,000 feet in Durango to 9,000 feet in Telluride prior to his college experience in baseball.

DraftKings Daily Fantasy Baseball Picks (6/28/19): MLB DFS Lineups
Fri, 28 Jun 2019 (by contributed by RotoBaller.com)

Welcome to Friday baseball on DraftKings! We have a huge 14-game slate on our hands with a ton to dig through. It's hot in Coors Field, so we'll start there. We saw close to 20 runs last night and nobody would be surprised to be a repeat tonight. With that said, those bats are expensive. We'll have to find some value elsewhere and look at some cheaper offenses that may put up some runs.

There are plenty of offenses to look at and there's a good chance a few of them will match the Dodgers. We just have to dig in deep and find those bats. The Astros against Tommy Milone have upside, so do the Brewers against a volatile Acher. Let's dive in and find some overlooked bats on DK.

In this article, I will be providing you with my daily fantasy baseball lineup picks for DraftKings on 6/28/19. The lineup picks will range from some of the elite players to mid-priced options and value plays. Be sure to also check out all the Vegas Odds for today's slate.

DraftKings DFS Starting Pitchers

Cole Hamels - CHC vs. CIN (Gray) - $9,900
There is no clear way to go at pitcher tonight. Cole Hamels has been phenomenal this season and draws a favorable match-up at home in Wrigley Field. Against left-handed pitching, the Reds rank 20th in baseball with a .309 wOBA and strikeout 21% of the time. That number drops to .297 on the road. Hamels has dominated both sides of the plate, allowing a .277 combined wOBA while striking out nine batters per nine innings. He pitches better at home and the Cubs are -190 favorites. Hamels is a lot cheaper than deGrom and Berrios and has a similar floor in cash games.

Merrill Kelly - ARI @ SF (Anderson) - $9,100
Merrill Kelly isn't a name many in baseball know, but he's been great this season and it isn't a fluke. He's certainly pitching a bit over his head, but he's not walking many batters and if you've watched his games, you can tell he's the real deal. The Diamondbacks are willing to let him go seven or eight innings and this Giants team is one that can be taken advantage of by anyone. We saw Alex Young make his debut last night at 25 years old and dice them up. He faced this same Giants team in hitter-friendly Chase Field a week ago and struck out nine Giants. He'll now enter the best pitching ballpark in baseball and is a great SP2 in your cash games. In tournaments, I love Chris Archer and Michael Wacha.

DraftKings Infielders

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[click here to read the rest of the DraftKings Daily Fantasy Picks article on RotoBaller.com]




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Saturday's Starting Lineups

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